China Won't Peak as Forecasted by the “China Peak Theory”

中国的发展不会因为“见顶论”而见顶

As President Xi Jinping stressed during his recent meeting with representatives of the US business, strategic and academic communities, the Chinese economy is sound and sustainable. China did not collapse as predicted by the “China collapse theory,” nor will it peak as forecasted by the “China peak theory.”

正如习近平主席日前会见美国工商界和战略学术界代表时指出，中国经济是健康、可持续的。中国的发展过去没有因为“中国崩溃论”而崩溃，现在也不会因为“中国见顶论”而见顶。

There are varying perspectives on China’s economy. The widely shared view, however, is that China is among the fastest-growing major economies. As the second largest economy in the world, the Chinese economy has a solid foundation, remarkable resilience and enormous potential. 

中国经济究竟怎么样，不同的人有不同的分析视角。各方普遍认同的是，中国经济增速在世界主要经济体中位于前列。作为世界第二大经济体，中国经济具有坚实的基础、强大的韧性和巨大的发展潜力。

First, China is the only country in the world that has industries across all categories in the UN industrial classification and home to over 200 mature industry clusters. The size of China’s manufacturing industry has been the largest in the world for 14 consecutive years. Second, China has over 400 million people in the middle-income bracket, and the number is on course to reach 800 million in the next decade or so. There are close to 300 million rural migrants who are acquiring permanent urban residency at a faster pace. It will create massive demand and significantly transform consumption in areas such as housing, education, medical services and elderly care. Third, China’s total input in research and development and investment in the high-tech sector have been growing at double-digit rates for several years running. China also tops the world in the number of patent applications and technology clusters. Fourth, the Chinese government is speeding up the cultivation of new quality productive forces. The effort has visibly given boost and support to high-quality development. Last but not least, more and more multinational businesses are investing in the Chinese market, which is a vote of confidence for China’s economic outlook. In January and February this year, 7,160 foreign-invested companies were set up in China, marking a year-on-year increase of 34.9 percent, the highest in the past five years.

首先，中国是唯一拥有联合国产业分类中全部工业门类的国家，已形成200多个成熟的产业集群，制造业规模连续14年居世界首位。第二，中国中等收入群体超4亿人，未来十几年将达到8亿人，近3亿农业转移人口正加快市民化进程，将在住房、教育、医疗、养老等方面带来巨大消费需求和强劲消费升级动能。第三，中国全社会研发投入、高技术产业投资连续多年保持两位数增长，专利申请量和科技集群数量位居世界第一。第四，中国政府加快发展新质生产力，已经展示出对高质量发展的强劲推动力和支撑力。第五，越来越多的跨国企业投资中国市场，为中国经济前景投下信任票。今年前两个月，在华新设立外商投资企业7160家，同比增长34.9%，达到近5年来最高水平。

Facts speak louder than words. No matter how some people try to dampen the outlook on China’s economy, the overall trend of long-term growth will not change, China’s super-sized market and well-functioning industrial system remain its notable strengths, and factors underpinning the high-quality development are building up. Through its steady development, China will remain a strong engine and source of opportunities for the world economy.

事实胜于雄辩。无论一些人如何唱衰，中国经济长期向好的基本趋势不会改变，超大规模市场和完备产业体系的突出优势不会改变，支撑高质量发展的要素条件在不断积累。中国将继续以自身的稳定发展，为世界经济增长提供强劲动力、为全球发展带来更多机遇。

来源：外交部网站